Describe at least three qualitative forecasting techniques and the advantages and disadvantages of each
Basically the types of
forecasting techniques used are quantitative forecasting technique and
qualitative forecasting technique. The explanatory variables used by the
protrusion of the historical data during the time of forecasting are the
quantitative techniques. On the other hand, qualitative techniques includes of
primary subjective inputs that frequently confronts specific numerical
question. The three qualitative forecasting techniques are as follows:
Executive
opinions: Executive opinions are said to be the subjective views of
executives or experts from aspects such as sales, production, finance,
purchasing, and administration are averaged to produce a forecast about sales
in coming days. Casually, this technique is used in conjunction along few
quantitative methods, such as trend extrapolation. The management team upgrades
the resulting forecast, based on their assumptions. The forecasting is
conducted faster and efficiently, excluding necessities of elaborate
statistics. Also, the jury of executive opinions is probably the only means of
forecasting feasible in the absence of adequate data.
Delphi
method: It is a considered as a group technique where a panel of experts
is questioned one by one about their perceptions and thoughts of events in
coming days. The experts do not get along as a group in order to deduct the
chances that consensus is reached because of dominant personality factors.
Instead of that, the foreseeing and accompanying arguments are summarized by an
outside party and given back to the experts along with further questions. Until
a consensus is obtained this is said to continue. Such method is useful and
effective for long-range forecasting. This technique is brought in act by
questionnaire format and abolishes the disadvantages of group think. There
exists no committee or debate. The experts are not affected by peer pressure to
forecast a certain way, as the answer is not presumed to be reached by
consensus or unanimity.
Consumer
Surveys: There are certain companies in market which conduct their own
market surveys relating specific consumer purchases. Surveys include telephone
contacts, personal interviews, or questionnaires as a measure of attaining data
and information. Usually extensive statistical analysis is implemented to
survey results for the reason to test hypotheses relating consumer behavior.
References
Stevenson, W.
(2012). Operation Management and Supply Chain (11th ed).NewYork: Tata McGraw-Hill
Irwin.
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