What are features common to all forecasts, elements of a good forecast, steps in forecasting, and forecasting accuracy?

The features common to all types of forecasts is that the techniques assume some underlying causal system that existed in the past through anticipation about the future could be made. Forecasts are not perfect because the result that has been depicted through the forecast may or may not be achieved. The forecast is always accurate for a group of items rather than individual items. Also note that the forecast accuracy for all types of forecast will decrease as the forecasting horizon increases. The elements of a good forecast constitute it's accuracy, timeliness, reliability to be expressed in meaningful units and in writing, techniques adopted should be simple to understand and be cost effective.(Stevenson, 2012)

                           

  The major steps involved in forecasting are the first step involves the process of determining the purpose of the forecast. Later the forecaster should establish time horizon. Then there should be obtaining, cleaning and analysis of appropriate data. Afterwards there should be selection of forecasting technique to make the forecast with continuous monitoring of the forecasting results.(Stevenson, 2012)

                         The forecast accuracy means the ability of the forecaster to predict the outcomes in the future to be achieved that is achievable. A forecaster always wants to minimize forecast errors and it is impossible to correctly forecast real-world variable values on a regular basis. So a forecast should always emphasize the probability of deviation from the achieved results and the forecasted result. The forecasting accuracy helps to minimize the forecasting error by reducing the forecasting error of the actual outcome and the forecast outcome. Through the measures of forecasting accuracy if there exists any unacceptable results leading to forecasting error corrective actions are initiated.(Stevenson, 2012)

References

Stevenson, W. J. (2012). Operation Management and Supply Chain. 11th edition NewYork: Tata McGraw-Hill Irwin.